What does it mean to call natural gas “green?”

Earlier this month, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed legislation to redefine natural gas as “green energy” and to require state agencies to lease out state lands for oil and gas exploration and production.

With the redefinition of natural gas as “green,” Ohio follows a summer decision by the European Union aiming to provide guidance for investors, policymakers, and companies interested in climate change. While natural gas still emits carbon dioxide, its emissions are 40% lower than coal according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Natural gas can’t get Ohio to a zero emissions future, but it has been instrumental in reducing Ohio’s carbon emissions, helping Ohio and its neighboring states reduce carbon emissions by a quarter over the past decade.

Some environmental experts are not happy with the redesignation, however. Ohio State University Environmental Law Professor Cinnamon Piñon Carlarne called the redefinition of natural gas “regressive and a fallacy” and “a little bit Orwellian.”

The new law also changes a permissive 2011 law that allowed state agencies to permit oil and gas exploration on state lands to a mandate for state agencies to open lands to oil and gas exploration. This takes oil and gas exploration from a case-by-case basis in places like state parks to a blanket allowance by oil and gas companies.

What stands out to me about these decisions is the difficulty in assessing the real impacts of policies. The new law defines “green energy” as energy that either (a) Releases reduced air pollutants, thereby reducing cumulative air emissions, or (b) is more sustainable and reliable relative to some fossil fuels. However, it still excludes energy generated through use of natural gas from eligibility for renewable energy credits.

It’s easy to get caught up in the rhetoric about public policy decisions. But what will this law actually do? It’s pretty hard to tell on its own.

Part of this is because while legislators and administrators in Ohio have access to robust legislative and budget analysis, they don’t have access to much policy analysis. This means that policymakers have good resources to figure out what their policy says and how much it costs, but little support in figuring out what it does.

The Legislative Service Commission is a well-funded nonpartisan agency that has hundreds of staff members analyzing bills to explain what the text says and what they will cost the state government. The governor has dozens of budget analysts working for him and agencies have legislative analysts who can help interpret the meaning of text.

On the policy analysis side? There isn’t as much capacity. In 2019, I conducted a study on the use of cost-benefit analysis in Ohio and found there were only 27 studies published from 2012 to 2018 that assessed costs and measured outcomes in some way for programs in the state. I was able to find no studies over the past decade that conformed to all the best practices of a cost-benefit analysis.

Wouldn’t it be useful to know how many metric tons of carbon we can expect to see reduced with reforms like this? Wouldn’t it be useful to have projections for how many lives could be saved through adoption of cleaner energy technology? More investment in cost-benefit analysis and policy analysis in our legislative and administrative processes could bring these statistics to the table for policymakers and the public.

Under a democratic system, politics will always be in tension with analysis. But analysis needs a fighting chance if we are going to have any idea what crucial changes like this will end up doing.

This commentary first appeared in the Ohio Capital Journal.

Effectiveness, Efficiency, and Equity: the Three "E"s of Policy Analysis

Policy analysis has a broad range of tools that help us better understand the impact of policy proposals. The purpose of policy analysis is to help policymakers better understand the potential outcomes of a proposal based on socially-relevant criteria. 

There are many different lenses through which an analyst can measure the impacts of a policy. Among these different lenses, three loom above all the others: effectiveness analysis, efficiency analysis, and equity analysis. 

These three criteria help us understand something different about what we expect a policy to do. Understanding the pros and cons of each is vital to performing meaningful analysis of public policy. 

Effectiveness

Measuring the effectiveness of a policy is entirely dependent on the criteria an analyst selects. The big question we are trying to answer when we ask how effective a policy is is “what are the outcomes of this policy? Does it accomplish its goals?” 

Imagine we are analyzing a policy that is designed to reduce pollution. We could measure its effectiveness by estimating how much carbon emissions are reduced, or perhaps by how we expect climate trends to change. We also could measure how much NOx or PM2.5 pollutants decrease, how many instances of low birthweight could be prevented by reduction of the pollutants, or even how many instances of respiratory illness or death are prevented by these reductions.

This means measuring how effective a policy is at improving both primary and secondary criteria. Along with estimating how much a policy reduces pollution, we can also estimate health benefits or recreation benefits associated with reduction of pollution. 

The gold standard of effectiveness is the “randomized controlled trial,” an experiment where participants are exposed to the policy randomly and their outcomes are compared to those of a control group. Not all policies are good candidates for randomized controlled trial, though: often quasi-experimental studies like difference-in-difference or regression discontinuity analysis can provide some evidence of effectiveness. Even lighter evidence can come from pre/post data or point-in-time data.

Efficiency

In contrast to effectiveness–which is only concerned with the outcomes of a policy–efficiency analysis depends on both a policy's inputs as well as its outputs. 

The most comprehensive tool policy analysts have to estimate economic efficiency of a public policy is cost-benefit analysis. Cost-benefit analysis is easy to understand, theoretically straightforward to compute, and if done well paints a clear picture of a policy’s efficiency. 

Although efficiency and effectiveness are similar to each other, they can sometimes be in tension with one another.  One example of this is the example of scaling policy–taking policy from the pilot level to broader application. When we increase the scale of policies, we often find increases in effectiveness and decreases in efficiency. 

Whether the most efficient or the most effective policy is preferred by a policymaker depends on the context of that policy. Maybe in the case of a pollution-reducing policy there is some emissions target that needs to be reached, even if it is not the most efficient. On the other hand, a policy may be efficient at a local level and not as desirable at a national level because of decreasing returns to scale. These are ultimately judgment calls that policymakers need to make, but that good analysis can make more clear.

Equity

The equity component of policy analysis is often the most difficult to understand, largely because it is the least well defined. Generally speaking, the goal of equity analysis is to understand how costs and benefits are distributed throughout society. 

Currently, methods for equity analysis tend to be less robust than methods for effectiveness or efficiency analysis. Partially this is due to the fact that accurate social/demographic data is often harder to access, and partially due to the fact that equity analysis is often an overlooked step. Equity also exists on multiple dimensions: income, race, gender, age, disability status, national origin, urban/rural etc. While some fields of policy such as tax policy have good standard practice for analyzing equity, examples such of this are few and far between due to the plethora of dimensions equity can be analyzed on.

Still, it is important to understand how equitable the outcomes of any policy are. Good questions for analysts to ask are “what are the demographics of the people who bear the costs of this policy?” and “Does this policy alleviate inequality?”

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As analysts, it is our responsibility to keep  diverse criteria in mind as we explore the possible outcomes of a policy proposal. There are always trade-offs between effectiveness, efficiency, and equity that will determine how a policy impacts society. 

However, in many cases analyzing a policy on all three dimensions may not be feasible due to time or resource constraints. Policy analysis is an inherently time-sensitive process – sometimes decisions have to be made quickly and policymaking moves faster than academia. 

Under these constraints, it is important to figure out which category of analysis is most useful for policymakers. Sometimes, a policymaker will ask for a specific type of analysis, other times it is up to the analyst to decide which analysis will provide the most useful information. 

In any case, it is important to remember that these three criteria tell us different things. Understanding how they are different and communicating it effectively to policymakers looking for information is one of the most important things a policy analyst can do.

Five policy issues to keep an eye on in 2023

A new year presents an opportunity to reset and take stock of where we are in the policy world. There are lots of issues policymakers have to consider that can dramatically change the way our society operates. Here are five policy issues that we expect to be talked about a lot this year. 

Abortion 

Last summer, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, opening the door for state governments to independently decide how they want to handle abortions. This decision set off a flurry of legal action that has dramatically changed the landscape of abortion access in the country. 

However, once the dust settles from all the legal drama, policymakers will have the opportunity to step in and redefine abortion rights in law. Whether it’s strengthening protections that already exist or writing new laws, this will undoubtedly be a major issue for years to come. 

Electric Vehicles

One important provision of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs act passed last year was that it provided specific funding for new electric vehicle infrastructure. Since then, all 50 states have submitted plans to improve their electric vehicle infrastructure. 

Looking forward, there are still many decisions policymakers need to sort out. Policies like electric vehicle tax credits, mandates for state vehicles to be electric, and new taxes on electric vehicle charging are all options state governments will consider in 2023. The infrastructure bill was only the beginning of the new debate around electric vehicle policy.

Healthcare

It is now almost three full years since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, and we are still feeling the lingering effects. One important change was that Medicaid enrollment increased substantially as a result of the Families First Coronavirus Response act. This caused  the number of people without health insurance to fall. 

Eventually, Medicaid eligibility will be reduced again. Before this happens, policymakers need to decide how they are going to respond to the potential for millions to lose publicly-funded health insurance. Will they let these protections lapse and return to the pre-covid status quo, or will this be the catalyst for new healthcare reform? Either way, healthcare will continue to be a major focus for policymakers in 2023. 

Cryptocurrencies 

Last year, 37 states introduced legislation that attempted to regulate cryptocurrency in some way. The most important legislation was when the federal government passed the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection act, opening the door for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to oversee the digital commodity market. 

It seems unlikely that cryptocurrency will go away anytime soon, given that more and more businesses are beginning to accept it as payment. Especially after the Sam Bankman-Fried arrest, policymakers will be forced to address cryptocurrency in the legislature and decide how to manage it. 

Inflation

One of the most pressing issues during the midterm election cycle, inflation continues to impact people across the country. Policymakers will have to find ways to address rising prices and help their constituents get by. 

In their 2023 budget, California approved stimulus checks of $1,050 for eligible households. Other states like Georgia and Virginia offered rebates to people who filed their tax returns. There is a lot of room to determine exactly when and how to support the people who are most impacted by inflation, and we should expect this to be an important discussion among policymakers this year.

What is the “Social Cost of Carbon”?

What do 51.5, 1, and 190 all have in common? There’s no obscure mathematical connection: these are the three values of the social cost of carbon (SCC) as calculated by the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations respectively. 

What is the SCC, and why is it that three different sets of economists can come up with such a wide range of estimates for exactly the same value? 

Why does it matter?

The SCC is one way we can try to correct an externality in the energy market. All else equal, producers and consumers of energy would often prefer to purchase the cheapest form of energy possible, which tends to also cause a lot of pollution. This means that people who do not pay the cost of buying electricity or producing electricity end up paying the cost of climate change even though they are not a part of the energy transaction. In a well-functioning market, producers and consumers are the only people impacted by a transaction. In this case, future generations and people in more climate-vulnerable environments take on the externality cost of carbon emissions–higher temperatures, heavier precipitation, and rising sea levels due to climate change. 

Considering this bigger picture, we can surmise it would be socially optimal for a larger portion of the energy bought and sold to come from non-polluting sources. 

Normally when there is some negative externality in a market, a government can impose some tax on it to bring the private cost of a good up to the social cost of the good and reduce consumption of that good. In the case of energy, this process would lead to other non-polluting sources of energy becoming relatively more affordable.

The SCC tells us how much damage an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions causes. This is a guideline that we can follow to better understand when different policy options to reduce emissions are cost-effective.

Why such a big range?

There are many differences between the various calculations for the social cost of carbon, but the most important difference is whose damages count. Deciding whose costs to count in policy analysis is one of the most important decisions to make.

This part of policy analysis is called defining standing. When we define who has standing, we are asking whose costs and whose benefits we are looking at. The SCC example illustrates two of the most common ways of defining who has standing: when everyone has standing and when the people within some set jurisdiction have standing. 

In practice, this leads to differences in the estimates for the SCC because the Trump administration only counted damages to Americans. The Biden and Obama administrations calculated the worldwide costs of additional carbon emissions. The newest estimate for the SCC relies on methodological changes to the way that socioeconomic factors, climate factors, and discounting is incorporated. These updates reflect a better understanding of the impacts of climate change and provide a better picture of the total costs.

International bodies enforcing sanctions on nations is a much more significant task than a local government enforcing a sanction on a single producer. Self-imposed policies driven by estimates of the SCC might be the only way to counteract global climate externalities caused by carbon emission.

Scioto Analysis's 5 biggest studies of 2022

In 2022, Scioto Analysis was busier than ever. We have been working hard to improve the quality of public policy analysis at the state and local level. As the calendar year comes to its end, we thought it would be fun to look back at the research Scioto Analysis put out this year. We got to work on projects that covered many parts of the public policy discussion, from income inequality to water systems to the impact of climate on local government. 

Energy Storage Roadmap for Northern Appalachia

This project was a collaboration with researchers from the Energy Policy Center at Cleveland State University. The goal of this project was to create an energy storage roadmap to help stakeholders transition into a growing market by understanding the assets available in Appalachia for the energy storage sector.

Northern Appalachia has long been associated with energy and natural resources. Now, as energy storage and transportation technologies keep evolving, this region has the opportunity to pivot its infrastructure into this new field. This report summarizes the current state of the energy industry and provides guidance on how to pivot those resources to this emerging industry. 

Municipal Tree Planting Programs: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

This project was a cost-benefit analysis examining the impact of tree planting programs in Ohio cities. Planting trees in a city can help the environment, improve physical and mental health, increase housing value, and even help reduce crime. 

Our analysis found that on average, planting and maintaining a new tree would cost an Ohio city just over $10 and provide benefits between $10 - $21 depending on the city. A single city could receive net benefits as high as $110 million depending on the canopy coverage goal. 

The Bill is Coming Due: Calculating the Financial Cost of Climate Change to Ohio’s Local Governments

Scioto’s biggest project of the year was estimating the local financial costs that will arise because of climate change. This project was a collaboration with Power a Clean Future Ohio and the Ohio Environmental Council.

In this study, we looked at how much new spending local governments will incur as a result of new climate factors like increased temperature and precipitation. For 10 important spending categories, we project that local governments in Ohio will have to spend between $1.8 and $5.9 billion additional dollars per year by 2050 to counteract the effects of climate change.

Income Inequality in Ohio 

This study looked at income inequality in Ohio and analyzed a few policy options that might alleviate it. Ohio currently has slightly more income inequality than the average state, with the top 1% of Ohioans making 10% of the state’s income and the bottom 50% making only 13%. 

The three potential policy options we examined were a refundable earned income tax credit, an increase to the minimum wage in Ohio, and a negative state income tax. Among these options, implementing a negative state income tax was the most effective at reducing income inequality in our simulations. 

Water Quality in Ohio: a Cost-Benefit Analysis

Our most recent project was a cost-benefit analysis about voluntary nutrient management programs as part of the H2Ohio initiative. This was the first cost-benefit analysis conducted by new Scioto policy analyst Michael Hartnett.

Our research showed that under current conditions, the program provides close to $3 million in net benefits from improved water quality to Ohioans. Assuming the program continues to remain effective, allowing farmers from the rest of the state to enroll in the program could result in about $12 million in net benefits.

An interview with ChatGPT’s “Assistant” about environmental health and carbon pricing

I’ll admit: I hadn’t really been hit by the full weight of the current conversation about artificial intelligence until I tried out the new ChatGPT app. While people have told me about the range of work that can be automated, asking this app to do things like write blog posts, scripts, and poetry showed the range of functionality of artificial intelligence.

There are still kinks to be worked out, but the technology is already impressive enough to generate some interesting insights. Below I will share with you an interview I had with “Assistant,” the ChatGPT Artificial Intelligence bot, on the impacts of the environment on health.

Rob: Hello, “Assistant,” and thanks for sitting down to talk with me today. I'd like to ask you a few questions about the interactions between environment and health for my blog. Are you game?

“Assistant”: Sure, I'd be happy to help. Can you provide more specific questions for me to address?

Rob: Yes! What are some ways the environment impacts health?

“Assistant”: There are many ways in which the environment can impact health. Some examples include:

1. Pollution: Exposure to air, water, and soil pollution can lead to respiratory problems, cardiovascular disease, and other health issues.

2. Climate change: Extreme weather events and changes in temperature can lead to heatstroke, dehydration, and other health problems.

3. Access to clean water: Lack of access to clean water can lead to waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid.

4. Access to nutritious food: Lack of access to nutritious food can lead to malnutrition and other health problems.

5. Access to healthcare: Inadequate access to healthcare can lead to poor health outcomes.

6. Access to safe housing: Poor quality housing or living in areas with high levels of crime can lead to physical and mental health problems.

7. Noise pollution: Constant exposure to loud noises can lead to hearing loss and other health issues.

These are just a few examples of the many ways in which the environment can impact health.

Rob: Let's talk about climate change. One thing policymakers talk about on this front is the difference between mitigation of climate change impacts (slowing climate change) and adaptation to climate change (things we do to deal with climate change's effects). What are some key policy options for mitigating climate change?

“Assistant”: There are several key policy options for mitigating climate change, including:

1. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: This can be achieved through various methods such as increasing the use of renewable energy sources, promoting energy efficiency, and implementing carbon pricing systems.

2. Protecting and restoring forests: Forests absorb and store carbon dioxide, so protecting and restoring forests can help mitigate climate change.

3. Promoting sustainable agriculture: By adopting sustainable agriculture practices, we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector and also improve soil health.

4. Promoting sustainable transportation: This can be achieved through measures such as increasing the use of public transportation, promoting carpooling, and encouraging the use of electric vehicles.

5. Reducing waste: By reducing waste, we can decrease the amount of greenhouse gases emitted through waste management processes.

6. Promoting energy-efficient buildings: By improving the energy efficiency of buildings, we can reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Overall, it is important for policymakers to consider a range of approaches when developing climate change mitigation strategies.

Rob: Wow, there are so many tools policymakers have to stave off climate change! One option you mentioned was carbon pricing: where are policymakers implementing carbon pricing in the United States?

“Assistant”: There are currently several states in the United States that have implemented carbon pricing systems, including:

1. California: California has a cap-and-trade program, which sets a limit on the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted and allows companies to buy and sell allowances to meet those limits.

2. Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont: These states have all joined the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a cap-and-trade program that covers the electricity sector in these states.

3. Illinois: Illinois has a voluntary carbon pricing program called the Illinois Carbon Market, which allows companies to offset their greenhouse gas emissions by purchasing credits from approved projects.

4. Minnesota: Minnesota has implemented a carbon pricing program called the Next Generation Energy Act, which puts a price on carbon dioxide emissions from large emitters.

5. Washington: Washington has a carbon pricing program called the Washington Carbon Emissions Reduction Taskforce, which sets a price on carbon dioxide emissions from large emitters.

Overall, while carbon pricing has not yet been implemented on a national level in the United States, several states have taken steps to implement their own carbon pricing programs.

Rob: When we talk about carbon pricing, we usually are talking about two different approaches: carbon taxation, which puts a price on carbon emitted to be paid to the government, and cap-and-trade, which requires firms to buy allotments from the government to pollute. What are some tradeoffs between these two systems?

“Assistant”: There are several key tradeoffs between carbon taxation and cap-and-trade systems:

1. Predictability vs flexibility: Carbon taxation is generally more predictable as it sets a fixed price on carbon emissions, while cap-and-trade systems can be more flexible as the price of allowances fluctuates based on supply and demand.

2. Simplicity vs complexity: Carbon taxation is generally simpler as it involves a single tax on carbon emissions, while cap-and-trade systems are more complex as they involve a market for allowances and the ability to buy and sell those allowances.

3. Political feasibility: Carbon taxation may be more politically feasible in some cases as it is a direct tax that can be used to fund government programs. Cap-and-trade systems may be perceived as more complex and may be less politically feasible in some cases.

4. Economic efficiency: Both carbon taxation and cap-and-trade systems can be economically efficient in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but the specific design of the system can impact its efficiency.

Overall, policymakers must consider these tradeoffs when deciding between carbon taxation and cap-and-trade systems as part of their climate change mitigation strategies.

Rob: If cap-and-trade may be perceived as more complex and thus less politically feasible, why are most carbon pricing systems in the United States cap-and-trade systems rather than carbon tax systems?

“Assistant”: There are several reasons why most carbon pricing systems in the United States are cap-and-trade systems rather than carbon tax systems:

1. History: Cap-and-trade systems have a longer history in the United States, with the first system implemented in 1990 for sulfur dioxide emissions. Carbon taxation has not yet been implemented on a national level in the United States.

2. Political feasibility: Cap-and-trade systems may be perceived as more politically feasible in the United States as they allow for the creation of a market for allowances, which can generate revenue for the government. Carbon taxation may be perceived as a more direct tax and may be less politically feasible in some cases.

3. Economic efficiency: Cap-and-trade systems can be more economically efficient in reducing greenhouse gas emissions as they allow for the creation of a market for allowances, which can help drive down the price of allowances and encourage emission reductions.

4. International precedent: Most international carbon pricing systems are cap-and-trade systems, which may also influence the preference for cap-and-trade systems in the United States.

Overall, these factors may contribute to the prevalence of cap-and-trade systems in the United States.

Rob: Well, Assistant, this has been enlightening. Thank you so much for your insight and I look forward to speaking with you again soon.

“Assistant”: You're welcome! I'm glad I could help. If you have any more questions, don't hesitate to reach out.

As you can see, “Assistant” loves to speak in lists, though that was partially because of the prompting I gave it. And the content was impressive–the bot was able to get to the heart of each question I asked and was able to answer the questions with the same quality as a well-informed state advocate would be able to.

What I find especially impressive about it, though, is the ease with which the bot compiles basic information and the clarity with which it communicates this information. This makes me think that AI has the potential to automate a lot of jobs that we never could have imagined would have been possible to automate.

Four important economics stories in 2022 that you may have overlooked

As a midterm year, election coverage dominated our newspapers for much of the year. That being said, 2022 was also a year full of stories about the U.S. economy. As the world clawed its way out of the pandemic, new trends emerged that revealed how our lives had changed since.

Below are four economics stories that are, in my estimation, among the most important stories of 2022. While we spent a lot of time reading about inflation, a sluggish stock market, and a certain multibillionaire purchasing a specific social media platform, the stories below are about trends that may have an impact years down the road.

U.S. poverty hit its lowest rate on record in 2021

When Congress failed to reauthorize the pandemic expansion of the Child Tax Credit in 2021, we knew low-income households would be in trouble. What we didn’t yet know, though, was how much the child tax credit expansion was helping low-income households. A September data release by the Census Bureau confirmed that the Supplemental Poverty Rate had fallen to 7.8% in 2021, 1.4 percentage points below the 2020 rate.

Government assistance had a large hand in reducing poverty in 2021. The Census Bureau estimates 45.4 million fewer people were in poverty because of government assistance that year than there would have been otherwise. Next year we will have data from 2022 to see what has happened in the face of reductions in assistance for children.

Nationwide math scores down after COVID

An October report from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, the first national report card since 2019, showed a drop in math scores nationwide among elementary and middle school students. Math scores showed the unraveling of decades of progress in math among U.S. youth, with fourth-grade scores dropping to their lowest levels since 2005 and eighth-grade scores dropping to their lowest levels since 2003.

Reading scores dipped in 2022 as well, though not as dramatically as math scores did. Peggy Carr, commissioner for the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), which administers the survey, said that the disruption in teaching caused by the pandemic was bound to hurt math scores more than reading scores. This is because reading is easier to practice at home while math usually needs more hands-on instruction to improve with. Hopefully returning to the classroom will help reverse this trend, though the scars of the pandemic on student learning will likely be felt for decades to come.

Most white Americans now live in mixed-race neighborhoods

In 1990, 78% of white Americans lived in neighborhoods where at least four out of five of their neighbors were white. As of the 2020 census, only 44% did. A November analysis by the Washington Post laid these statistics bare, showing that the percentage of Black Americans living in predominantly Black neighborhoods had also fallen over that period.

A driver of this shift is the migration of Black and Hispanic residents to suburban neighborhoods. Another factor is that America’s white population is shrinking. So the total population is becoming more diverse and neighborhoods are also becoming less segregated. A total of 56% of Americans now live in mixed-race neighborhoods.

US Happiness Report: happiest states in Southeast, least happy in Pacific Northwest

In November, Gross National Happiness USA released the first U.S. Happiness Report, the results of a 50-state survey that asked 5,000 Americans questions about life satisfaction, happiness, anxiety, and the extent to which the things they did in life were worthwhile.

The five highest-ranking states on the life satisfaction measure were Delaware, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, and South Dakota. The five lowest-ranking states were Oregon, Oklahoma, Washington, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. By analyzing state-level well-being, we can start to figure out which policies contribute to happiness and promote policies that help people live better lives.

These were just four stories from 2022. Let’s hope in 2023 that we see progress in poverty, learning, equity, and well-being.

Ohio economists think mental health spending will be good for the state economy

In a survey published this morning by Scioto Analysis, 18 out of 22 economists agreed that increasing state spending on mental health services, research, and job development will provide net social benefits greater than net social costs. Only one economist disagreed with the statement.

Among those who agreed, many pointed out that the specifics of how spending was increased would determine how efficient any new programs would be. There was consensus among economists that mental health resources are currently underfunded and increasing spending on them will be good for Ohio.

Additionally, 18 of 22 respondents agreed that increased mental health spending would improve equity and inequality conditions in Ohio. One economist pointed to the fact that without additional funding, mental health resources are more easily accessed by the well-off. Reducing the barriers to these services should reduce inequality as a result.

Last month, governor DeWine announced a proposal that would increase state spending on mental health services, research, and job development. These changes would be incorporated as part of Ohio's next two-year state budget plan.

The Ohio Economic Experts Panel is a panel of over 40 Ohio Economists from over 30 Ohio higher educational institutions conducted by Scioto Analysis. The goal of the Ohio Economic Experts Panel is to promote better policy outcomes by providing policymakers, policy influencers, and the public with the informed opinions of Ohio’s leading economists.

Four ways to help people with disabilities get work

A bill currently in the Ohio General Assembly would eliminate the subminimum wage for people with disabilities.

Currently, companies in Ohio are allowed to apply for a waiver from the state minimum wage to hire people with disabilities. The goal of this program is to make it easier for companies to hire people with disabilities and therefore to give more people with disabilities jobs.

I was talking to Michael Hartnett, a policy analyst I work with at Scioto Analysis about this problem earlier today. He brought up a few options for the state to increase employment of people with disabilities without paying them less.

Job training

Providing more funding for job training programs for people with disabilities can help give people with disabilities skills that are valuable for employers. The federal Employment and Training Administration provides funds for training people with disabilities.

The state of Ohio even has an office called the Bureau of Vocational Rehabilitation. The Bureau specifically focused on providing individuals with disabilities the services and support necessary to help them attain and maintain employment. More funding for training programs referred through the Bureau could increase employment of people with disabilities.

Grants for making workplaces accessible

One reason it is hard to hire people with disabilities is because employers may have trouble accommodating workers with disabilities in traditional workplaces. For instance, if a job traditionally requires typing, people with limited dexterity would typically not be a candidate. A grant for a job that requires some typing could allow a company to hire a scribe part- or full-time to type for that person.

One example of this type of program is the Retaining Employment and Talent after Injury/Illness Network (RETAIN) Initiative, a federal program that Ohio takes part in. Eight state teams received competitive awards to develop and run pilot programs aimed at helping workers stay at or return to the workforce following an illness or injury. A similar program could be developed for counties and cities if this program is successful.

Subsidizing wages for people with disabilities

The Earned Income Tax Credit is a popular wage subsidy aimed at bringing low-wage people into the labor force. A weakness of the Earned Income Tax Credit is that it is targeted at families, so people without children often have a small credit. Having a larger credit for people with disabilities or making the state earned income tax credit refundable for people with disabilities are two policy levers policymakers have for making it easier for people with disabilities to go to work.

Mandates for accommodation

A final option is to just tell employers they need to accommodate. The Americans with Disabilities Act requires employers to reasonably accommodate workers with disabilities. Strengthening state law around accommodations could require employers in Ohio to work harder to accommodate people with disabilities.

A 2018 study estimated that making it easier for people with disabilities to work would bring 10.7 million people into the U.S. workforce and would increase national GDP by $25 billion. If this is the case, that means more people with disabilities in Ohio’s workforce would mean hundreds of thousands of new workers and hundreds of millions of more dollars in the state economy. This looks like a win for everyone.

Economic costs we don't talk about

At Scioto Analysis, we love talking about new ways for policymakers to think about the economy. When we talk about strengthening the economy through the narrow lens of GDP growth, we’re often talking about people getting more things they want. If “the economy” is the total value of things people want, then this makes sense to an extent. 

But the economy isn’t just the sum total of things people have that they want, it’s also offset by the cost of things people don’t want. Below is a simplified model of the economy factoring in this insight.

“The Economy” = The Total Value of Stuff People Want - The Total Cost of Stuff People Don’t Want

Just as an economy grows as it adds jobs (something people want), it also grows as it reduces car crashes (something people don’t want). 

Below are three economic costs that further illustrate this point.

Underemployment

When we talk about the current conditions in the labor market, we often focus on unemployment as the main indicator. Unemployment is certainly very important, but the official U3 unemployment measure doesn’t include underemployment. We know it is bad when someone wants to be able to work but can’t find a job, but it is also bad when someone can’t find enough work. 

If during an economic downturn, an employer chooses to reduce hours rather than lay off employees, the unemployment rate doesn’t change. Including underemployment as part of the discussion paints a much more complete picture of conditions in the labor market. 

Homelessness/Houselessness

People who don’t have somewhere consistent to spend the night regularly fall through the cracks when it comes to provision of public services and in discussions about the economy. 

Consider what happens if a houseless person has to go to the emergency room because of the cold. First and foremost, there is a social cost (e.g. hypothermia) that goes unmeasured by GDP. Then, because a healthcare provider ends up providing a service that has to be paid for, GDP actually grows slightly. If the goal of economic indicators is to show us where we can enact policy to help make people more well off, then including houselessness in that discussion is very important.

Defensive Expenditures

Defensive expenditures refers to personal spending on things that do not increase welfare or are used to prevent a loss in welfare. Take home security for example. If people didn’t have to spend anything on home security, they’d be able to use those resources on things they actually wanted. A neighborhood without crime would have less spending on home security systems, which would be a good thing for families.

If we don’t intentionally include defensive expenditures in the discussion, then most measures of the economy will take these pieces of economic activity and count them as positives. Separating consumer spending into categories is difficult, but an important nuance that helps us better understand how people are doing in the economy.
These three measures, underemployment, homelessness/houselessness, and defensive expenditures, are accounted for in the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). GPI is a “GDP+” measure that accounts for both sides of the ledger: economic benefits and economic costs. It also includes economic benefits such as home child care and volunteering not included in GDP. If we want to talk about the economy in a thoughtful way, we need to ensure we’re looking at a complete picture.