This morning, Scioto Analysis released a new report on Ohio’s Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), a comprehensive economic measure that fills the environmental and social gaps neglected by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures.
This year’s study covers ten years of data on Ohio’s GPI, addressing the time period from 2009 to 2018, where the best primary data is available. Ohio’s GPI grew over this time period by about 19%, mostly driven by economic factors. Below are some positive trends from 2009 to 2018 that drove GPI growth:
Personal spending was up $4,400 per capita, net saving was up $2,600 per capita, and Ohio’s unemployment and underemployment rate was cut in half over that period.
Higher education is on the rise: 420,000 more people had bachelor’s degrees in Ohio in 2018 than in 2009.
Air pollution is on the decline: four out of five major pollutants saw emissions declines, with nitrogen oxide emissions cut in half over the period and 2018 sulfur dioxide emissions at one-sixth the level of 2009 emissions.
Inequality growth has slowed: after increases in inequality levels from 2009 to 2013, the trend of Ohio’s Gini coefficient flattened from 2013 to 2018.
Despite the positive overall trend, GPI growth was stymied by environmental and social factors, leading to a growth rate in GPI that was about half the GDP growth rate over that time period. Below are the main factors that decreased GPI over this time period.
A boom in natural gas drilling and substitution away from coal led to a decline in CO2 emissions, but relied on extraction of limited nonrenewable resources that chipped away at Ohio’s stock of nonrenewables.
The average worker spent 31 more hours at work and 8 more hours commuting and the average adult spent 18 fewer hours on housework and caring for children or other family members in 2018 than in 2009.
Trends in farmland pricing and economic hangover from the Great Recession in the consumer durables market also took a bite out of GPI growth.
“While we’re in the midst of a short-term economic crisis, it’s easy to lose the forest for the trees when it comes to the long-term trajectory of our economy,” said Rob Moore, Scioto Analysis Principal and study co-author. “When we measure what matters, we see that Ohio’s long-term economic vitality is being stymied by increased family time constraints and rapid depletion of state natural resources, side effects that can be addressed by public policy decisions.”
This study was a partnership between Rob Moore of Scioto Analysis and Isabel Clayter, Masashi Hamano, Ashwin MB, and Cruz Eduardo Flores Vera, a group of graduate students at the University of California, Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy. This is the first of a series of briefs on Ohio’s economic trajectory and options for policymakers interested in improving it.