This week, Scioto Analysis’s cost-benefit analysis on school closures for COVID-19 was featured in the Wall Street Journal (article paywalled). Scioto Analysis’s research was highlighted in an opinion piece on virtual learning at Harvard University due to COVID-19. Below is an excerpt that covered Scioto’s analysis.
In the Pac-12, the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley is pointing to a recent cost-benefit analysis of school closures co-authored by its graduate Rob Moore. The study focuses on the possibility of closing K-12 schools in Ohio for four months this fall. According to Mr. Moore’s firm, Scioto Analysis, the shutdown would have a disproportionate impact on kids’ future earning potential:
Overall, the cost-benefit analysis found that total costs in lost wages outweigh benefits measured in risk of death reduction by a factor of 14 to 1. The paper also touches on distributional impacts since further school closings would amount to a relatively small cost exacted on a large number of school-age children in exchange for a large benefit for a small number of elderly residents.
“More than nine out of ten COVID deaths in Ohio are among people age sixty and up and we have yet to record a COVID death in Ohio among school-age children,” said Moore. “Meanwhile, the average student loses out on $12,000-27,000 in lifetime earnings by losing four months of schooling. School closings are in essence an intergenerational transfer.”
Overall, the analysts estimate that further school closings would exact $22-37 billion in net social costs to the state when balancing wage losses with risk of death reduction benefits.
Mr. Moore’s study was released June 22. The state of Ohio is currently reporting a cumulative total of two Covid deaths among people under the age of 20. The median age of those dying with the virus is 80.
The cost-benefit analysis on school closings was the second best-practice cost-benefit analysis in Ohio in over a decade. The previous one was Scioto Analysis’s 2019 study on the state earned income tax credit. To learn more about cost-benefit analysis, check out the Ohio Handbook of Cost-Benefit Analysis, a free resource available for download on the Scioto Analysis website.