The dust has settled on the 2024 presidential election and we now know that Donald Trump will once again be President of the United States.
Trump has promised many things for his second term in office: deregulation, tax cuts, an end to Russia’s war with Ukraine, tariffs on all goods from other countries. The step he could take that could have the most immediate impact on both human rights and Ohio’s economy, however, would be on immigration.
Trump has promised to conduct mass deportations of unauthorized migrants, rounding up immigrants in workplaces, schools, homes, and places of worship to send them back to their countries of origin. Local law enforcement will be a key player in determining how “mass deportations” will be carried out in the state of Ohio.
Municipal police departments, county sheriffs offices, and the state highway patrol will have to decide how much to defer their work from policing violent crimes and property crimes to carry out federal immigration policy. What decisions local law enforcement make around prioritization could have a significant impact on Ohio’s economy.
Earlier this week, Ohio Capital Journal Reporter Marty Schladen wrote about the important role immigrants play in Ohio’s economy. Immigrants in Ohio are taxpayers, consumers, business owners, doctors, software developers, professors, cooks, health care workers, and college students.
An analysis done by researchers at the American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution, and Niskanen Center released before the election shines some light on what the new administration’s immigration policy could do to immigration. Trump’s immigration plan is estimated to reduce both authorized and unauthorized immigration, increase removals from the interior, increase adjudication of current cases leading to more removals, and encourage others to leave on their own.
These researchers estimate this would mean as many as 740,000 fewer immigrants in the United States in the first year of Trump’s presidency. Weighted for Ohio’s foreign-born population as reported in the American Community Survey, that could mean as many as 9,700 fewer immigrants in Ohio in about a year.
The AEI/Brookings/Niskanen study reports this massive reduction in the number of immigrants in the United States would cost the country 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points in GDP in 2025. In Ohio, weighted for Ohio’s foreign-born population, that would mean somewhere between $330 million and $1.3 billion in lost gross state product.
For comparison, the Ohio Department of Development estimates 21 counties in Ohio have a gross domestic product of $1.3 billion or less. So if these policies are carried out as planned, Ohio could lose a small county’s worth of its economy in fewer consumers, business owners, and workers. On a per capita basis, this means a cost of $28 to $110 per person in the state. So you can consider this a head tax of $28 to $110 per person to pay for having fewer immigrants living in this state.
Just because something shrinks the economy doesn’t mean it is bad. We might decide it appropriate to institute policies that trade off economic growth for reductions in poverty and inequality, improvements in environmental quality, or more time for people to spend with their children or elderly parents. But what exactly are we buying for this immigration crackdown? After all the national conversation on this topic, I still don’t have an answer to this question.
This commentary first appeared in the Ohio Capital Journal.