In a survey released this morning by Scioto Analysis, 14 of 20 Ohio economists surveyed thought that mass deportations of undocumented immigrants would significantly reduce Ohio’s gross domestic product. President-Elect Donald Trump has stated that he intends to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants across the country soon after taking office. If this policy is carried out, local police will be responsible for detaining and holding immigrants in conjunction with state and federal law enforcement agencies.
Rachel Wilson from Wittenberg University agreed that Ohio’s economy would shrink, writing “Not only will it be reduced by immigrants production but because of their missing demand. Immigrants do not come and work in a vacuum. They spend the money they make creating additional demand for goods and [services]. They often have a high marginal propensity to consume from each dollar they earn.”
Of the remaining six economists, three were uncertain about the impact on gross state product and three disagreed deportations would significantly reduce gross state product.
“The share of undocumented workers is small in Ohio,” said Bob Gitter of Ohio Wesleyan University, “Deportations would not have a significant impact.”
In addition to significantly reducing Ohio’s economy, 15 out of 20 economists disagreed that mass deportations would ease the burden on Ohio’s safety net. Some policymakers argue that undocumented immigrants take advantage of publicly funded social services while not paying taxes to support those services, but economists in the survey disagreed.
Kathryn Wilson from Kent State says “Estimates are that undocumented immigrants pay more than $250 million in taxes within the state of Ohio per year. There would be some reduction in education expenses within Ohio if there were mass deportation, but most social safety net programs are not available to undocumented immigrants. I expect that the loss in tax revenue would more than offset the reduction in costs within Ohio.”
The Ohio Economic Experts Panel is a panel of over 40 Ohio Economists from over 30 Ohio higher educational institutions conducted by Scioto Analysis. The goal of the Ohio Economic Experts Panel is to promote better policy outcomes by providing policymakers, policy influencers, and the public with the informed opinions of Ohio’s leading economists. Individual responses to all surveys can be found here.