This morning, Scioto Analysis released a new cost-benefit analysis exploring what the impact of raising Ohio’s minimum wage would be. Research on minimum wage increases has shown that it can lower the suicide rate, prevent homicides, and lower infant mortality. Our model predicts that because of these three impacts, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour in Ohio would save approximately 4,100 lives over the next 10 years.
The primary cost of raising the minimum wage in Ohio would be an increase in unemployment. We estimate that as many as 73,000 Ohioans could lose their jobs as a result of this change, which amounts to a rise in unemployment of a little over 1%.
Using commonly accepted values for the costs and benefits, we estimate that raising the minimum wage in Ohio will generate about $25 billion in economic value for the state by 2036. The benefit of reducing deaths outweighs unemployment costs from an economic perspective.
Currently, there are two minimum wage proposals Ohio is considering. There is a ballot initiative that would raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026 and Senate Bill 256 which would raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2028. Our model is based on the ballot initiative parameters, which suggests that if Senate Bill 256 is passed we should expect slight lower costs and benefits, as the real impact on wages will be lower.