With immigration grabbing the headlines in the United States, the potential loss of state workforce has economists wringing their hands. . A study conducted during the election last year as a joint effort between the American Enterprise Institute, the Brookings Institution, and the Niskanen Center analyzed alternative immigration policies under a potential Harris administration and a potential Trump Administration.
In this study, the three think tanks analyzed what gross domestic product could look like under the two administrations. Under a Harris Administration, their analysis projected anywhere from a tenth of a percentage point increase to a tenth of a percentage point decrease in GDP. That may not seem like a lot, but from a baseline of about $29 trillion, that means about $29 billion either way based on the policy decisions of the administration.
The range of decisions projected under the Trump Administration were even larger. They projected anywhere from a tenth of a percentage point decrease in GDP to four-tenths of a percentage point decrease. That means anywhere from $29 billion to $117 billion in lost GDP under Trump immigration policy scenarios.
While it is yet to be seen how much of a drag the Trump Administration immigration policy with have on the U.S. economy, the administration has doubled down on its commitment to mass deportation policy, suggesting economic losses in the United States will likely be on the high end.
We have posed questions to our Ohio Economic Experts Panel about how mass deportation will impact the Ohio economy. In November of last year, 14 of 20 Ohio economists we asked believed mass deportations would reduce gross state product. In April, earlier that year, 17 of 19 said immigration helped counteract Ohio’s brain drain. If Ohio’s economy drops in proportion to its foreign-born population, it stands to lose anywhere from $330 million to $1.3 billion in gross state product due to mass deportations. This not only means fewer people working for businesses and purchasing goods and services, it also means reduced tax revenue for state and local governments.
The impact of mass deportations will be felt unevenly. From my vantage point here in Ohio, I am in a state that is squarely in the bottom half of the country when it comes to the percentage of workers who are foreign-born (about 6% according to American Community Survey data). Some states, especially some of the U.S.’s largest states, have workforces that are over a quarter foreign-born. Below is a table of each of the states ranked by the percentage of their workforce that is foreign-born.
| State | Native Workers | Foreign-Born Workers | Percentage Foreign Workers |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 12,539,284 | 6,169,684 | 33% |
| New Jersey | 3,275,151 | 1,372,134 | 30% |
| New York | 6,943,299 | 2,625,782 | 27% |
| Florida | 7,445,333 | 2,770,246 | 27% |
| Nevada | 1,113,674 | 359,744 | 24% |
| Hawaii | 520,080 | 148,152 | 22% |
| Texas | 11,037,800 | 3,108,474 | 22% |
| Massachusetts | 2,905,380 | 781,084 | 21% |
| Maryland | 2,476,434 | 656,236 | 21% |
| Washington | 3,038,934 | 742,912 | 20% |
| Connecticut | 1,483,008 | 351,627 | 19% |
| Illinois | 5,107,664 | 1,143,398 | 18% |
| Rhode Island | 458,575 | 96,981 | 17% |
| Virginia | 3,535,477 | 721,017 | 17% |
| Arizona | 2,793,197 | 545,911 | 16% |
| Georgia | 4,373,228 | 758,511 | 15% |
| Delaware | 415,788 | 66,278 | 14% |
| Oregon | 1,788,710 | 261,064 | 13% |
| New Mexico | 800,879 | 110,867 | 12% |
| Colorado | 2,692,830 | 359,021 | 12% |
| North Carolina | 4,409,315 | 584,177 | 12% |
| Utah | 1,483,755 | 190,768 | 11% |
| Minnesota | 2,666,414 | 321,281 | 11% |
| Alaska | 301,929 | 36,306 | 11% |
| Nebraska | 921,274 | 97,389 | 10% |
| Kansas | 1,318,018 | 135,752 | 9% |
| Pennsylvania | 5,735,658 | 583,997 | 9% |
| Oklahoma | 1,649,611 | 160,092 | 9% |
| Michigan | 4,305,985 | 406,668 | 9% |
| Idaho | 825,896 | 70,409 | 8% |
| Indiana | 3,045,994 | 256,285 | 8% |
| Arkansas | 1,225,421 | 102,248 | 8% |
| Tennessee | 3,048,347 | 252,346 | 8% |
| South Carolina | 2,206,550 | 180,895 | 8% |
| Iowa | 1,509,726 | 119,703 | 7% |
| New Hampshire | 691,604 | 53,760 | 7% |
| Ohio | 5,336,548 | 357,748 | 6% |
| Louisiana | 1,888,719 | 124,392 | 6% |
| Kentucky | 1,910,564 | 122,496 | 6% |
| North Dakota | 380,463 | 24,204 | 6% |
| Wisconsin | 4,488,911 | 282,363 | 6% |
| Missouri | 2,806,505 | 168,685 | 6% |
| South Dakota | 433,717 | 23,936 | 5% |
| Alabama | 2,112,897 | 115,748 | 5% |
| Vermont | 321,182 | 16,276 | 5% |
| Maine | 657,639 | 30,537 | 4% |
| Wyoming | 442,807 | 19,429 | 4% |
| Mississippi | 1,206,731 | 39,930 | 3% |
| Montana | 524,086 | 14,728 | 3% |
| West Virginia | 723,049 | 16,959 | 2% |
Table 1: Foreign-born workforce by state, data from American Community Survey
California is the state with not only the most foreign-born workers (6.2 million), but also the largest percentage of foreign-born workers, with about a third of workers in the state coming from another country. California relies heavily on foreign-born workers in service, construction, production, and transportation occupations. This means California’s agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade and warehousing industries are heavily reliant on foreign-born workers. California is also heavily dependent on foreign-born workers in its professional services industry. California’s foreign-born population is mostly from Latin America and Asia, with about 89% of the population coming from those two regions of the world.
The state that is the second most reliant on foreign-born workers is located on the opposite side of the country–New Jersey. About three in ten workers in New Jersey are foreign-born, about 1.4 million foreign-born workers in the state. New Jersey’s agriculture industry is not as dependent on foreign-born workers as California’s, but other sectors like construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, warehousing, and professional services are disproportionately supported by foreign-born workers. About half (48%) of New Jersey’s foreign-born population is from Latin America, about a third (32%) are from Asia and most of the rest are from Europe (13%) and Africa (6%).
Right next to New Jersey comes the third state on our list, New York. New York’s 2.6 million foreign-born workers make up over a quarter of the state workforce. Foreign-born workers are actually less likely than native workers to work in agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale trade, or professional services. Foreign-born workers in New York are disproportionately represented in the construction and warehousing industries, but also the arts, entertainment, and recreation industries. Most of New York’s foreign-born population is from Latin America (49%) and Asia (30%), but a larger proportion is from Europe (15%) than California or New Jersey can claim.
For our fourth-most foreign-born-worker-dependent state, we must go south. Florida is the highest southern state on the list with its 2.8 million foreign-born workers making up 27% of the state workforce. Foreign-born workers make up a disproportionate share of Florida’s agricultural, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transportation industries. Florida’s foreign-born population is heavily Latin American, with over three-quarters (78%) hailing from Latin America. This compares to only 10% hailing from Asia and 7% hailing from Europe.
Rounding out the top five is the first small state to make the list, Nevada. Nevada’s 360,000 foreign-born workers make up nearly a quarter of the state workforce. Nevada relies disproportionately on foreign-born workers in its construction, transportation, and warehousing industries, but notably not in its agricultural, manufacturing, or wholesale trade industries. Where it relies most heavily on foreign-born workers is its arts, entertainment, recreation, and accommodation industry, which employs over a quarter (28%) of foreign-born workers in the state. Nevada’s foreign-born workers mainly hail from Latin America (54%), with a significant minority from Asia (32%) and some Europeans (8%).
All in all, nine states have more than one in five workers born in another country and 24 states have more than one in ten. Mass deportations will disrupt state economies significantly, especially if they are conducted in large states with workforces heavily dependent on foreign-born workers like California, New Jersey, New York, and Florida. States impacted most severely by this policy will have to make adjustments to budgets, workforce development programs, and social safety net design to accommodate this change.