"Population growth and human ingenuity go hand in hand. More people means more minds, more innovation, and ultimately, more solutions to the world's challenges."
— Julian Simon, Economist
When state policymakers wring their hands about population growth, they are channeling Simon. Population growth means more people buying goods, more employees, more people starting businesses, and more people paying taxes. While there have been states that have been able to maintain high quality of life despite a plateauing population (looking at you, Vermont), many state leaders are interested in population growth as an indicator of a state’s health.
In 2024 the Pew Charitable Trusts released a map which details the changes in population over the past fifteen years. Let’s take a look at which states are succeeding the most on this metric of state health..
1. Utah
Over the last 15 years, the fastest growing state in the country is Utah. Utah has seen a 1.68% increase in population yearly between 2009-2023. Historically, the rise in Utah’s population was primarily attributable to natural increase, or annual births minus annual deaths. Now, interstate migration is contributing significantly to the state’s growth. Growth in Utah and Salt Lake Counties accounted for 64% of statewide population growth in the last year. As Salt Lake County becomes more expensive, more people are settling slightly farther out from the city in the Provo area.
Three of the top five fastest-growing states seem to be growing at least partly due to wildfires and the rising cost of living sweeping the western sea board. In August of 2024, the NIH released a study finding that “wildfires were only associated with heightened out-migration in tracts that experienced the highest levels of structure loss.” Still more alarming were the findings by Nature Communications that in the last two decades, “only the most extreme wildfires (258+ structures destroyed) influenced migration patterns.” The increasing frequency and severity of wildfires on the west coast contributes significantly to the population change experienced there.
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, there have been nearly 15,000 wildfires since January 1, 2025. These fires have burned almost 400,000 acres across the United States. This is already above the 10-year average of nearly 8,800 wildfires per year.
The UCLA Anderson School of Management found that Los Angeles County rents were slightly higher after wildfires. Decreased housing supplies, increased fire risk, and rising insurance rates give workers reason to emigrate. As fewer houses remained standing after the fires, an increased demand for housing must compete with the decreased supply, and prices rose. Displaced families are moving to interior states like Utah in search of safe, affordable housing.
2. Idaho
Idaho is the second fastest growing state in the country. Between 2009-2023 the state grew by 430,000 residents. More than 17,300 of these new residents came from Washington, just barely more than the 17,000 from California. About 7,000 of these new Idaho residents came from Oregon. Because these individuals are moving from more expensive states, 50% of newcomers own a home within a year. Meridian, a suburb of Boise, has grown the fastest over this time period.
3. Texas
The third fastest-growing state is Texas. Texas has experienced a large population increase due to international immigration. In 2022, more than 1,000 migrants per day crossed into the state of Texas. Domestic migration also significantly increased Texas’s population—most of these new residents hailed from California. Interstate migrants were attracted by the state’s affordability and job opportunities.
4. Florida
Florida is the fourth fastest growing state in the country. Florida has not had the same wild-fire impacts as states like Utah and Idaho. Rather, Florida’s rise in population has largely come from international migration. In 2024, there were 411,322 new Florida residents who came from other countries. Overall, there were 23 million people living in Florida, with an increase of 467,000 people over 2023. Due to the older population in the state, Florida was one of 17 states that had more deaths than births.
5. Nevada
In fifth place is Nevada. Between 2009-2023, Nevada experienced 1.24% population growth per year. Since 2018, about 48,000 new residents cross into the state each year. According to the Reno Gazette Journal, the state is anticipated to reach 4 million residents by the year 2043.
Overall, two trends seem to be driving growth in the fastest-growing states. With rising prices and more frequent, intense environmental disasters battering the west coast, Americans are voting with their feet and seeking safer, more affordable homes in inland western states like Idaho, Nevada, and Utah. Opportunities in the United States are driving people from other countries to come to states like Florida and Texas. We will have to see how changing dynamics in housing and immigration will impact these trends over the next fifteen years.