COVID Shutdowns

Question A: Ohio's economy would be substantially stronger today if state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had lasted longer in the first half of last year.

Question B: Ohio's economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person statewide.

Question A: Ohio's economy would be substantially stronger today if state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had lasted longer in the first half of last year.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Strongly Disagree	9	Local efforts don't work long run unless all visitors must quarantine. That is illegal for US local government. All the truly successful examples in the world show that an effective national policy is required for long-run success against Covid-19.
Greg Arburn	University of Findlay	Strongly Agree	10
Bizuayehu Bedane	Marietta College	Disagree	9
Jay Corrigan	Kenyon College	Disagree	8
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Agree	8	We see substantial variation across states in orders and results. But there is also cross-border transmission so there is a limit to what any one state can achieve. What is needed is more National uniform policies such as national mask mandate.
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Uncertain	5	How long and would the citizens abide by measures against gathering and in favor of face masks.
Hasan Faruq	Xavier University	Agree	9
Robert Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Uncertain	5	Six months back is a long time during a pandemic. It is hard to know what the effect of a "stay-at-home" order through June on Ohio's economy in January.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Uncertain	5
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Disagree	8	Given the state of federal leadership, I don't think this would have been effective. A strategy like this needs wide coordination, not piecemeal efforts.
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Agree	5	It would depend on whether the stay at home order was enforced/followed and other complementary rules put in place to reduce the spread of COVID.
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Disagree	5
Fadhel Kaboub	Denison University	Uncertain	10	The lockdown was meant to buy us time. The strength of the economy depended on federal relief for individuals and businesses. CARES act money was helpful but not sufficient, which is why the post-vaccine recovery is likely to be slow.
Bill Kosteas	Cleveland State University	Uncertain	5	Compliance is key. If extending the stay-at-home orders lead to lower compliance, it could have resulted in more Covid cases, not fewer. There are too many unknowns here to predict the effects of longer/stricter stay-at-home orders.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	7
Michael Myler	University of Mount Union	Disagree	7	I am getting the impression that universal mask usage, frequent hand-washing, and avoiding crowds is the key to reducing the spread of the virus. The lockdowns are substitutes for these three practices.
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Disagree	7	Without the additional steps of contract tracing, testing, and mask wearing, I don't think a longer lockdown would have helped that much.
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Uncertain	6	I supported the stay at home orders, but I am not sure that longer orders earlier would matter now. Controlling the spread better now would seem to be the key issue.
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Uncertain	10	There are too many confounding factors to make any counterfactual judgment.
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	Uncertain	1	This question is particularly tenuous. Prelimanary data suggests that economies' duration of stay at home orders did not have a significant impact on post-lockdown economic activity.
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Disagree	6
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Disagree	6
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Disagree	6
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Disagree	6
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Disagree	7
Mark Votruba	Case Western Reserve University	Disagree	7	The backlash would likely have been more severe.
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Disagree	6
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Disagree	6	The state is not an island unto itself. If Ohio's policies had lasted longer but other states had more lenient policies I would expect the virus to be widespread. My answer would change if nationwide restrictions were implemented and lasted longer.
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Disagree	9

Question B: Ohio's economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person statewide.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Strongly Disagree	8	It will be a tiny boost, but impossible to measure change in the rest of the economy from such a tiny increase in spending. It is good, not "as soon as" it happens, but because it should boost long-run productivity, the main purpose of education.
Greg Arburn	University of Findlay	Agree	8
Bizuayehu Bedane	Marietta College	Agree	9
Jay Corrigan	Kenyon College	Agree	6
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Agree	8	In-person schooling especially for younger children should be first priority. Close bars/inside eating and offer those establishments aid.
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Strongly Disagree	9	It will then be a signal to the rest of the population of the effectiveness of safety measures.
Hasan Faruq	Xavier University	Agree	9
Robert Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Disagree	7	I don't think that remote and hybrid classes are a major factor in keeping the Ohio economy down.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	9
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	No Opinion	1	This statement seems to imply causality, but I think there are too many confounding factors to establish a causal link. When schools return to normal, it will be happening because spread of the virus is being controlled; that will obv. be beneficial.
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Uncertain	6
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	10	Until schools reopen, there is a limit on how many individuals can go back to work. With schools closed, the natural rate of unemployment is higher.
Fadhel Kaboub	Denison University	Disagree	10	Unfortunately, some jobs have been lost permanent. Service jobs will only recover when public confidence in the effectiveness of the vaccines is fully established. Federal relief money can lead to a robust recovery even if schools are in remote mode.
Bill Kosteas	Cleveland State University	Agree	8	Remote K-12 education is a major burden on many households, reducing labor supply as one parent (more often the mother) devotes more time to childcare/assisting with schooling.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Michael Myler	University of Mount Union	Disagree	7	Many parents would be available for outside jobs if they no longer had to baby-sit and home-school their children. But that does not mean that an outside job is available for them.
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Uncertain	5	Without masks, tracing, testing, and vaccination, opening schools may provide a boost but may set the state up for a relapse.
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Uncertain	6	I strongly believe that virtual schooling has negatively impacted parent's ability to work. My uncertainty is how whether this will "substantially" boost the economy with all of the other Covid-19 related problems the economy faces.
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Strongly Agree	9	At a bare minimum, school is daycare, releasing adults into the labor force.
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	Agree	8	The boost will be linked to the ability of parents to work and go out, as well as the signal it sends to the general population about the ability to open the economy.
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Uncertain	8	What does “substantial “ mean?
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Uncertain	8	What does “substantial “ mean?
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Uncertain	8	What does “substantial “ mean?
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Uncertain	8	What does “substantial “ mean?
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Disagree	6
Mark Votruba	Case Western Reserve University	Uncertain	4	The opening of K-12 isn't critical in itself, but woudl indicate things are improving
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Agree	6
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Agree	7	The key is that if K-12 schools can be safely opened then that suggests other economic activity would also be safer than now. I do believe K-12 schools should be prioritized both due to impacts on kids and for labor productivity of parents.
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Agree	8

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