Universal Pre-Kindergarten

Question A: A universal state pre-kindergarten program would have economic benefits that would outweigh its economic costs.

Question B: A universal state pre-kindergarten program would reduce poverty and inequality in the state of Ohio.

Question C: A universal state pre-kindergarten program would improve educational outcomes such as high school graduation rates and college enrollment in Ohio.

Question A: A universal state pre-kindergarten program would have economic benefits that would outweigh its economic costs.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Agree	7	Pre-K education is generally more cost effective than spending on education for older youths because it is relatively cheap, and the true direct cost is also much smaller than the sticker price because it would replace expensive existing programs and tax subsidies and it would increase tax revenues by increasing workforce participation among parents. It also has the advantage of potentially boosting later educational outcomes for more years. The big uncertainty is whether it would be implemented as effectivly as the many programs that have been studied in the past that have shown high ROI.
Bizuayehu Bedane	Marietta College	Agree	9
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	5
Glenn Dutcher	Ohio University	Agree	9
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Agree	8	I think the economics benefits are greater than the economic costs as children are our future workers and the first 5 years is so important. However, it may be best to have optional pre-K vs. mandatory so parents can decide if the subsidized pre-k program is better or not than their current alternative.
Hasan Faruq	Xavier University	Strongly Agree	9
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	9	The evidence clearly shows that investment in providing pre-kindergarten improves earnings down the road enough to justify the expenditure just on those grounds. Also, parents could more easily seek employment, paying in more more tax dollars.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	8
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Strongly Agree	10	I think there's broad agreement about this in the literature.
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	1	There are so many ways to implement these programs, that the devil is really in the details. We've seen some programs with great returns, but the recent research from Vanderbilt showing negative returns to universal pre-k is concerning.
Fadhel Kaboub	Denison University	Strongly Agree	10	Absolutely, the empirical evidence is very clear about the importance of early childhood education having a high return on investment in the long term.
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Strongly Disagree	10
Bethany Lemont	Ohio University	Agree	10	Additionally, evidence exists that suggests that a universal program would be more economically efficient than a targeted program: According to Cascio (2021) “The constellation of evidence is consistent with universal pre-K delivering greater benefits to the population it serves, relative to the costs, than targeted pre-K.” Source: Cascio, Elizabeth. 2021. “Does Universal Preschool Hit the Target? Program Access and Preschool Impacts,” The Journal of Human Resources
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Strongly Agree	9
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Agree	9
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	8	The research is pretty strong to support this, with two caveats: 1) the focus needs to be on high quality pre-K (so need to fund enough), and 2) it would be good for the children, but not necessarily long term for the state if they migrate somewhere else (a constant problem in Ohio, but maybe this would encourage people to move here or stay here).
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Strongly Agree	10
Dean Snyder	Antioch College	Agree	8
Kay E. Strong	Independent	Strongly Agree	10	Assuming a high-quality pre-kindergarten program with sufficient funding to include use and support of comprehensive early learning standards and curricula; credentialed teachers; ongoing teacher training and support; appropriate class size and teacher-student ratio; and a system of continuous quality improvement, then the children of the State are winners both in short and long term respects. That is really all that should matter because they are the future upon which everything else in the State will be built.
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	Strongly Agree	10	Studies have shown that Universal Pre-K programs are one of the most cost effective ways to improve childhood outcomes for low income families. It also increases labor force participation.
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Strongly Agree	10
Thomas Traynor	Wright State University	Strongly Agree	9	Most independent research indicates that pre-K education generates benefits that far exceed costs (assuming it is implemented reasonably well).
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Strongly Agree	10
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Strongly Agree	9
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Agree	5	It is not clear if the universal pre-kindergarten program would be required or would be made available to all who wanted to attend. I believe that making pre-kindergarten programming available to all would have benefits that outweigh the economics costs, recognizing that many of those benefits may come well into the future while the costs are now.
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Strongly Agree	10	Economic research consistently supports this.

Question B: A universal state pre-kindergarten program would reduce poverty and inequality in the state of Ohio.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Agree	9	Although it would replace means-tested programs, those programs tend to miss a lot of low-income people and universal programs tend to be more, well, universal! Political incentives also mean that programs for the poor can have poor quality compared with universal programs.
Bizuayehu Bedane	Marietta College	Agree	9
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	5
Glenn Dutcher	Ohio University	Agree	9
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Strongly Agree	10
Hasan Faruq	Xavier University	Agree	9
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	9	One of the largest drivers of inequality is the low levels of education among lower income individuals. Universal pre-kindergarten would improve the job prospects of those who receive it 15 or 20 years down the road.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	8
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Strongly Agree	10	Again, I think there's broad agreement about this in the literature.
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	1
Fadhel Kaboub	Denison University	Uncertain	10	Universal pre-K education is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for reducing poverty and inequality. It must be supplemented by a comprehensive set of investments in health, education/training, housing, transportation, infrastructure, and job creation programs.
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Disagree	8
Bethany Lemont	Ohio University	Agree	5
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	7
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Agree	9
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	7	I agree, but see my caveats to the first question.
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Strongly Agree	10
Dean Snyder	Antioch College	Agree	5
Kay E. Strong	Independent	Strongly Agree	10
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	Strongly Agree	10
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Uncertain	8
Thomas Traynor	Wright State University	Strongly Agree	9	Most independent research indicates that pre-K education is a low cost way to reduce poverty (assuming it is implemented reasonably well).
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Strongly Agree	10
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Agree	8
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Agree	5
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Strongly Agree	10

Question C: A universal state pre-kindergarten program would improve educational outcomes such as high school graduation rates and college enrollment in Ohio.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Agree	8	As proposed, it would be an increase in educational spending. That tends to have a positive effect on outcomes. My amateurish read of the literature indicates that early-childhood education is so much more cost-effective than secondary or university education that it would probably improve overall outcomes even if total education spending were held constant and the money for universal pre-K was transferred from cuts on spending for older youth, but I'm less confident about this latter scenario.
Bizuayehu Bedane	Marietta College	Strongly Agree	9
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	5
Glenn Dutcher	Ohio University	Agree	7
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Agree	7
Hasan Faruq	Xavier University	Agree	9
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	9	Previous studies do show this. The reason is most likely improved cognitive skills.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Strongly Agree	9
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Strongly Agree	10	Again, I think there's broad agreement about this in the literature.
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	1
Fadhel Kaboub	Denison University	Uncertain	10	Universal pre-K education is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for improving high school graduation rates and college enrollment. It must be supplemented by a comprehensive set of investments in after-school programs, youth centers, summer camps with sports, arts, science, tech/innovation programs.
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Strongly Disagree	9
Bethany Lemont	Ohio University	Agree	5	Cascio (2021) provides evidence of improved third-grade test scores but she is uncertain about longer-run improved educational outcomes. Related evidence on improving early K-3 education suggests that improved test scores early on do lead to increased college enrollment and adult earnings (Chetty et al. 2011). I imagine that effects would be similar for increasing access to pre-K but I have no directly relevant evidence to support this assertion. Source: Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Nathaniel Hilger, Emmanuel Saez, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Danny Yagan, How Does Your Kindergarten Classroom Affect Your Earnings? Evidence from Project Star , The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 126, Issue 4, November 2011, Pages 1593–1660
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Strongly Agree	9
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Agree	6
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	8	The research is pretty clear that this would be true, particularly if the universal pre-k was good quality.
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Strongly Agree	10
Dean Snyder	Antioch College	Agree	7
Kay E. Strong	Independent	Strongly Agree	10
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	Strongly Agree	10	Economic studies have shown this to be the case.
Melissa Thomasson	Miami University	Agree	9
Thomas Traynor	Wright State University	Strongly Agree	9	Most independent research indicates that pre-K education generates higher educational achievement at a relatively low costs (assuming it is implemented reasonably well).
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Strongly Agree	10
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Agree	8
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Agree	5
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Strongly Agree	10	This would all take time. The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today.