Child Tax Credit

Question A: A state version of the 2021 expansion of the child tax credit would reduce child poverty substantially.

Question B: The costs of increasing resources for low-income families via a state child tax credit would be offset over the long term by the fiscal benefits of improving life outcomes for children no longer growing up in poverty.

Question C: Parental labor supply would be likely to fall significantly following introduction of an expanded child tax credit.

Question A: A state version of the 2021 expansion of the child tax credit would reduce child poverty substantially.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Bizuayehu Bedane	Marietta College	Agree	9
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	8
Jay Corrigan	Kenyon College	Agree	6	There's no doubt a state version of the 2021 child tax credit would reduce child poverty. What's harder to say is whether it would reduce poverty "substantially."
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Strongly Agree	10	Children are our future workers. I think this is one of the most efficient and fair uses of our tax dollars.
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	6
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Disagree	9	The amount of the tax credit would determine the effect on reducing child poverty. Given the amount of the credit in other states, ($200-$1,000 per child) if the credit was on that order of magnitude it would not lift that many children out of poverty.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	8	"substantially" is tough to quantify. It will reduce child poverty. However, these tend to miss families that do not owe and thus may not file taxes.
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Strongly Agree	10	This is almost tautologically true. The only debate can come regarding the word 'substantially', but I think the evidence from the federal-level 'experiment' makes this clear.
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Agree	4	While there may be some reduction in child poverty, whether that reduction is substantial will depend on supporting policies in place.
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Agree	8
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Agree	9
Bethany Lemont	Ohio University	Agree	1	It likely would reduce child poverty but I'm not sure what exactly would constitute a "substantial" reduction.
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Agree	8
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	7	It obviously depends on the size of the tax credit and whether the federal one remained, but in general child tax credits would reduce children in poverty.
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Strongly Agree	10
Kay E. Strong	Independent	Strongly Agree	10
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Agree	7
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Agree	7
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Agree	6	It depends on size of the tax credit, whether it is refundable, and who qualifies. A larger tax credit that is refundable and available to lower-income households with children can definitely reduce child poverty substantially. On the other hand, a small credit or one that is not refundable or has qualification hurdles may have a limited effect.
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Agree	9

Question B: The costs of increasing resources for low-income families via a state child tax credit would be offset over the long term by the fiscal benefits of improving life outcomes for children no longer growing up in poverty.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Bizuayehu Bedane	Marietta College	Agree	9
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	8
Jay Corrigan	Kenyon College	Uncertain	5
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Agree	8
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	8
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Uncertain	5	This depends on the structure of the credit. If it goes to all families or those in the upper middle class the long run impact on those children would be minimal. Targeting it to low income children would have an impact that might result in the program paying for itself in the long run.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	5	Nationally, yes. At at state level, probably, but it depends on the extent to which the children continue to work and live in the state in adulthood.
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Strongly Agree	8	I think this is very likely true, based on experimental evidence from the US and from comparison to other countries with more progressive tax codes.
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Agree	4
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	8
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Agree	8
Bethany Lemont	Ohio University	Agree	2	In general, programs that benefit low-income children have had fiscal benefits that exceed their costs in the long run but I don't know enough about state child tax credits to assert that that would also be the case with this particular hypothetical policy.
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Agree	8
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	8
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Agree	8
Kay E. Strong	Independent	Strongly Agree	10
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Strongly Agree	9
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Agree	8
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Strongly Agree	9	Research is strong that investment in low-income children not only increases the quality of life for those children but also provides financial returns later in life for the individual and the state.
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Agree	7

Question C: Parental labor supply would be likely to fall significantly following introduction of an expanded child tax credit.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Bizuayehu Bedane	Marietta College	Disagree	8
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	8
Jay Corrigan	Kenyon College	Agree	4
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Disagree	8	I don’t think parent labor supply will change much but I don’t really care what the answer is. Support parents and let them decide.
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Disagree	8
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	8	The effect would be largest for low-income single parents. I would imagine there would not be much of an effect for others.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Disagree	7	Labor supply is relatively income inelastic. Although, the pandemic has certainly changed attitudes toward work in recent years.
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	No Opinion	1	I'm not familiar enough with the evidence here to comment. Labor supply is... weird.
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Uncertain	4
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	5
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Disagree	9
Bethany Lemont	Ohio University	Uncertain	10	This would depend on how the child tax credit was structured. If it has a phase-in and phase-out range based on income like the EITC, then it could actually increase parental labor supply. (See https://www.nber.org/digest/aug06/earned-income-tax-credit-raises-employment) If it would just be a lump-sum credit, it has the potential to reduce parental labor supply but it's hard to tell if the potential reduction would be "significant" without having more information about the size of the credit.
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Disagree	7
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Disagree	7	This would definitely depend on the size of the credit, but it is unlikely to have any significant impact on parental labor supply.
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Disagree	8	some reduction is likely
Kay E. Strong	Independent	Strongly Disagree	10	To suggest that a child tax credit would create a backward bending labor supply curve for targeted low and moderate income families would indeed be a spectacle to behold! With a 12% poverty rate for Ohio's children and food insecure homes, a family would be fortunate to buff up the calories for underweight children. The USDA reported in 2020 that 14.8 percent of households with children were food-insecure, up from 13.6 percent in 2019.
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Disagree	5
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Disagree	5
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Strongly Disagree	8
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Disagree	8	I don't think the amount is enough to significantly impact the labor supply. Large amounts of parents in poverty are not going to quit their jobs to then live in deep poverty