Abortion Protection — Scioto Analysis

Question A: Adoption of abortion protections in Ohio will lead to more abortions in Ohio.

Question B: Adoption of abortion protections in Ohio will lead to more abortions for women from Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

Question C: Women from Ohio and neighboring states who receive abortion services will experience economic outcomes in the form of higher educational attainment, higher labor force participation, and higher wages.

Question A: Adoption of abortion protections in Ohio will lead to more abortions in Ohio.

  
  
      Economist
      Institution
      Opinion
      Confidence
      Comment
    

  Jonathan Andreas
Bluffton University
Strongly Agree
9
The new restrictions will not have nearly as big of an effect as the introduction of Roe because the advent of cheaper and/or more effective birth control technology has already dramatically reduced the rate of unwanted pregnancies (and abortions) since 1973 plus new pharmaceutical abortion technologies are much easier and more difficult to police.  So I expect most abortions will continue using the new technology and both the fears of the pro-choice movement and the hopes of the pro-lifers are both overblown, but it will definitely have an effect, particularly on poorer and less-educated women because they use less effective birth control and they have fewer resources to circumvent new abortion restrictions.  
David Brasington
University of Cincinnati
Strongly Agree
10
Ron Cheung
Oberlin College
Uncertain
5
Kenneth Fah
Ohio Dominican University
Agree
7
Robert Gitter
Ohio Wesleyan University
Strongly Agree
10
Nancy Haskell
University of Dayton
Agree
8
Paul Holmes
Ashland University
Strongly Agree
10
Faria Huq
Lake Erie College
Disagree
8
Michael Jones
University of Cincinnati
Strongly Agree
10
Charles Kroncke
Mount Saint Joseph University
Uncertain
7
Trevon Logan
Ohio State University
Disagree
7
Diane Monaco
Economics Professor
Disagree
8
In Nov 2024 Ohioans will vote to position reproductive/abortion rights within the Ohio State Constitution.  This ballot question will ask whether individuals should have the right to make their own reproductive health care decisions, including contraception, abortion, fertility treatment and miscarriage care. 

During this election, Ohio will be the only state this year to have reproductive rights on the ballot in 2024 and will be the least restrictive state in the Midwest potentially enabling Ohio to have an enormous effect on reproductive rights in the entire region. This vote may also give hope to Democrats to influence voters and potentially affect races for President, Congress and other state-level offices as occurred when the one-time battleground state went for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.
Michael Myler
University of Mount Union
Agree
8
Joe Nowakowski
Muskingum University
Strongly Disagree
10
Curtis Reynolds
Kent State University
Uncertain
7
Depends on what you want to compare to.  Currently, there are laws greatly restricting abortions on the books but those laws are currently on hold in the courts.  So compared to the status quo, there will be no effect.  Compared to a world where those laws go in effect, there would be less abortions in that world.
Lewis Sage
Baldwin Wallace University
Strongly Disagree
10
Ejindu Ume
Miami University
Uncertain
7

  
  

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Strongly Agree	9	The new restrictions will not have nearly as big of an effect as the introduction of Roe because the advent of cheaper and/or more effective birth control technology has already dramatically reduced the rate of unwanted pregnancies (and abortions) since 1973 plus new pharmaceutical abortion technologies are much easier and more difficult to police. So I expect most abortions will continue using the new technology and both the fears of the pro-choice movement and the hopes of the pro-lifers are both overblown, but it will definitely have an effect, particularly on poorer and less-educated women because they use less effective birth control and they have fewer resources to circumvent new abortion restrictions.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	10
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Uncertain	5
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	7
Robert Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Strongly Agree	10
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	8
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Strongly Agree	10
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Disagree	8
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	10
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Uncertain	7
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Disagree	7
Diane Monaco	Economics Professor	Disagree	8	In Nov 2024 Ohioans will vote to position reproductive/abortion rights within the Ohio State Constitution. This ballot question will ask whether individuals should have the right to make their own reproductive health care decisions, including contraception, abortion, fertility treatment and miscarriage care. During this election, Ohio will be the only state this year to have reproductive rights on the ballot in 2024 and will be the least restrictive state in the Midwest potentially enabling Ohio to have an enormous effect on reproductive rights in the entire region. This vote may also give hope to Democrats to influence voters and potentially affect races for President, Congress and other state-level offices as occurred when the one-time battleground state went for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.
Michael Myler	University of Mount Union	Agree	8
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Strongly Disagree	10
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Uncertain	7	Depends on what you want to compare to. Currently, there are laws greatly restricting abortions on the books but those laws are currently on hold in the courts. So compared to the status quo, there will be no effect. Compared to a world where those laws go in effect, there would be less abortions in that world.
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Strongly Disagree	10
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Uncertain	7

Question B: Adoption of abortion protections in Ohio will lead to more abortions for women from Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

  
  
      Economist
      Institution
      Opinion
      Confidence
      Comment
    

  Jonathan Andreas
Bluffton University
Agree
9
David Brasington
University of Cincinnati
Strongly Agree
10
Ron Cheung
Oberlin College
Agree
7
Kenneth Fah
Ohio Dominican University
Uncertain
8
Robert Gitter
Ohio Wesleyan University
Strongly Agree
10
Nancy Haskell
University of Dayton
Agree
8
Paul Holmes
Ashland University
Agree
9
Seems very likely, unless there's some way to stop out-of-state people using Ohio services.
Faria Huq
Lake Erie College
Agree
7
Michael Jones
University of Cincinnati
Strongly Agree
10
Charles Kroncke
Mount Saint Joseph University
Uncertain
6
Trevon Logan
Ohio State University
Agree
8
Diane Monaco
Economics Professor
Strongly Agree
10
In Nov 2024 Ohioans will vote to position reproductive/abortion rights within the Ohio State Constitution.  This ballot question will ask whether individuals should have the right to make their own reproductive health care decisions, including contraception, abortion, fertility treatment and miscarriage care. 

During this election, Ohio will be the only state this year to have reproductive rights on the ballot in 2024 and will be the least restrictive state in the Midwest potentially enabling Ohio to have an enormous effect on reproductive rights in the entire region. This vote may also give hope to Democrats to influence voters and potentially affect races for President, Congress and other state-level offices as occurred when the one-time battleground state went for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.
Michael Myler
University of Mount Union
Agree
7
A key issue is whether they will be subject to arrest and imprisonment upon return to their home state.
Joe Nowakowski
Muskingum University
Agree
6
Curtis Reynolds
Kent State University
Uncertain
9
This depends on two factors: 1) will women cross state lines for abortions and 2) what is the legal status for abortion in their state.  I assume there could be some movement across state lines but am not sure how much.  As of now, Kentucky has already voted to protect abortion so there may not be a reason to come from there.
Lewis Sage
Baldwin Wallace University
Agree
3
Assumes more restrictive conditions in border states
Ejindu Ume
Miami University
Disagree
6

  
  

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Agree	9
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	10
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Agree	7
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Uncertain	8
Robert Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Strongly Agree	10
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	8
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Agree	9	Seems very likely, unless there's some way to stop out-of-state people using Ohio services.
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Agree	7
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	10
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Uncertain	6
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Diane Monaco	Economics Professor	Strongly Agree	10	In Nov 2024 Ohioans will vote to position reproductive/abortion rights within the Ohio State Constitution. This ballot question will ask whether individuals should have the right to make their own reproductive health care decisions, including contraception, abortion, fertility treatment and miscarriage care. During this election, Ohio will be the only state this year to have reproductive rights on the ballot in 2024 and will be the least restrictive state in the Midwest potentially enabling Ohio to have an enormous effect on reproductive rights in the entire region. This vote may also give hope to Democrats to influence voters and potentially affect races for President, Congress and other state-level offices as occurred when the one-time battleground state went for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.
Michael Myler	University of Mount Union	Agree	7	A key issue is whether they will be subject to arrest and imprisonment upon return to their home state.
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Agree	6
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Uncertain	9	This depends on two factors: 1) will women cross state lines for abortions and 2) what is the legal status for abortion in their state. I assume there could be some movement across state lines but am not sure how much. As of now, Kentucky has already voted to protect abortion so there may not be a reason to come from there.
Lewis Sage	Baldwin Wallace University	Agree	3	Assumes more restrictive conditions in border states
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Disagree	6

  
  
      Economist
      Institution
      Opinion
      Confidence
      Comment
    

  Jonathan Andreas
Bluffton University
Agree
9
The essential moral issue of abortion is defining when mere tissue becomes human.  Catholics call this ensoulment and it determines whether or not removing tissue is the murder of a soul or morally akin to lipposuction. So the clear economic benefits to women of abortion are never going to be nearly big enough to convince anyone who thinks that abortion is murder to change their mind.  All other costs and benefits are trivial in comparison with the question of when the mere flesh of sperm and eggs become fully human.   
David Brasington
University of Cincinnati
Agree
7
Ron Cheung
Oberlin College
Agree
7
Kenneth Fah
Ohio Dominican University
Uncertain
8
Robert Gitter
Ohio Wesleyan University
Strongly Agree
9
There is some good research showing that better economic outcomes do arise.  It is generally lower income women who cannot travel out-of-state that benefit economically from the availability of abortion services.
Nancy Haskell
University of Dayton
Strongly Agree
9
Paul Holmes
Ashland University
Agree
7
Probably so, but I would be surprised if this were a large effect. And it's not clear to me that this is an argument that abortion advocates should make. Abortion opponents (I think) see these sort of arguments as 'beside the point'.
Faria Huq
Lake Erie College
Agree
8
Michael Jones
University of Cincinnati
Uncertain
5
Taking the life of an innocent baby is evil and immoral. Framing this decision as an economic one shows the depravity of our society.
Charles Kroncke
Mount Saint Joseph University
Uncertain
6
Trevon Logan
Ohio State University
Uncertain
8
Diane Monaco
Economics Professor
Strongly Agree
10
In Nov 2024 Ohioans will vote to position reproductive/abortion rights within the Ohio State Constitution.  This ballot question will ask whether individuals should have the right to make their own reproductive health care decisions, including contraception, abortion, fertility treatment and miscarriage care. 

During this election, Ohio will be the only state this year to have reproductive rights on the ballot in 2024 and will be the least restrictive state in the Midwest potentially enabling Ohio to have an enormous effect on reproductive rights in the entire region. This vote may also give hope to Democrats to influence voters and potentially affect races for President, Congress and other state-level offices as occurred when the one-time battleground state went for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.
Michael Myler
University of Mount Union
Agree
8
Joe Nowakowski
Muskingum University
Strongly Agree
9
Curtis Reynolds
Kent State University
Strongly Agree
6
The research is clear that ability to control fertility is very important for all of these outcomes.
Lewis Sage
Baldwin Wallace University
Strongly Agree
10
As opposed to not receiving such services
Ejindu Ume
Miami University
Agree
6

  
  