Mass Deportation

Question A: Mass deportations would ease the burden on Ohio’s social safety net.

Question B: Mass deportations would substantially reduce Ohio's labor supply in certain industries.

Question C: Mass deportations will significantly reduce Ohio’s Gross State Product.

Question A: Mass deportations would ease the burden on Ohio’s social safety net.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Disagree	7	We can only deport people who are not here legally and they are ineligible for social services except kids can get public education and most of the kids of undocumented immigrants are US citizens by birth. Furthermore, undocumented workers typically pay payroll taxes even though they don't get any credit for it, so they subsidize Social Security and Medicare.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Agree	8
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Strongly Disagree	10
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Uncertain	9
Will Georgic	Ohio Wesleyan University	Disagree	4	The social safety net encompasses a variety of programs, but if we consider only the supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP) as an example, we can see that undocumented immigrants make up only a small share of the total recipients. There were over 1.3 Million SNAP recipients in Ohio in July of 2024 and only an estimated 89,000 unauthorized immigrants. According to the Migration Policy Institute, fewer than half of these people would meet the income threshold to be eligible for SNAP and a likely even smaller share would choose to apply. Ultimately this means that the number of SNAP recipients in the state would shrink by no more than 4% with deportations of unauthorized immigrants. While reducing recipients by 4% would lower payments, tax revenue would also decrease by deporting tax payers and decreasing economic activity throughout the state. It's difficult to state with confidence which effect would dominate.
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Disagree	8	In the grand scheme of things, given the few social programs that undocumented immigrants are eligible for (NOT Medicaid and Food Stamps), there would not be much impact.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Uncertain	5
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Disagree	7	People who might be deported from Ohio don't qualify for a lot of social services so the cost savings would be negligible; and the loss of tax revenue to support those services would decrease ability to pay for such services.
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Strongly Disagree	10	Mass deportations will drastically reduce the number of people paying into the social safety net. Many of those deported will be young workers and their families.
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Disagree	9	Assuming that only unauthorized noncitizens are deported, the impact on the safety net would be negligible. These individuals are not eligible for public benefits under PRWORA (with limited exceptions).
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Strongly Disagree	8
Michael Myler	University of Mount Union	Disagree	6
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Strongly Disagree	9	The cost to the economy would add to the stress
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Disagree	5	Most research suggests that undocumented workers do not put a large strain on the social safety net. In fact, they appear to help others such as Social Security through their payroll taxes.
Kay Strong	Independent	Strongly Disagree	10
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	10
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Uncertain	7
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Agree	8
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Disagree	8	Estimates are that undocumented immigrants pay more than $250 million in taxes within the state of Ohio per year. There would be some reduction in education expenses within Ohio if there were mass deportation, but most social safety net programs are not available to undocumented immigrants. I expect that the loss in tax revenue would more than offset the reduction in costs within Ohio.
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Disagree	9	Evidence shows immigrants quickly become productive members of the economy and are a net benefit to the tax base.

Question B: Mass deportations would substantially reduce Ohio's labor supply in certain industries.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Strongly Agree	10	Employers love more workers and hate having fewer choices of people to employ.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	8	we just don't have as many as other states
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Strongly Agree	10
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Strongly Agree	9
Will Georgic	Ohio Wesleyan University	Uncertain	5	According to the Migration Policy Institute, it does not appear as if mass deportations of unauthorized immigrants would significantly impact the total employment in most industries. However, there is a lot of uncertainty here. The predicted number of unauthorized immigrants may underestimate the count in particular industries, such as construction, if these industries are more likely to employ undocumented labor. Secondly, the scale of deportations is still uncertain, and deporting documented immigrants could have significant effects on industries such as healthcare.
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Strongly Agree	9	If undocumented workers were deported there would be shortages of farm laborers, construction workers, and some kitchen workers and busboys in restaurants.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	9
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Agree	8	Some particular industries are likely to be hit pretty hard.
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Strongly Agree	10	Mass deportations will reduce the labor supply, reduce productivity and increase prices.
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Agree	9	These include agriculture, construction, and retail.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Michael Myler	University of Mount Union	Agree	7
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Strongly Agree	10
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	5	It would vary by industry but a lot of seasonal work (agriculture, hospitality) could be affected.
Kay Strong	Independent	Strongly Disagree	10
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	10
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Agree	8
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Agree	7
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Strongly Agree	10	Agriculture, food processing, and construction are all industries where immigrants make up a signification portion of the labor force and where I would expect a significant impact within Ohio.
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Strongly Agree	10

Question C: Mass deportations will significantly reduce Ohio’s Gross State Product.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Strongly Agree	10	Fewer people means less production, but the average Ohioan doesn't care as long as their wages don't drop. Unfortunately, most Ohioans will also see their real wages drop because of rising prices and shortages and fewer well-paid jobs supervising immigrants.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Disagree	10	not so many workers, and the jobs they have produce lower-value goods
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Strongly Agree	10
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	8
Will Georgic	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	7	While it is hard to know whether the reduction in state GDP will be significant, and this will largely depend on the scale of the deportations, the effect will be unambiguously negative. Deportations represent negative supply shocks as well as negative demand shocks, both suggesting a decrease in real output.
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Disagree	8	The share of undocumented workers is small in Ohio. Deportations would not have a significant impact.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	9
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Agree	7	Would expect minor decrease in output, would not expect that the labor would be easily replaced.
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Strongly Agree	10	Crime and immigration are separate topics. The vast majority of immigrants are hard working people with strong family values. We need people to add to the economy and pay taxes. That is what makes America great.
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Agree	8	The impact depends on the number of unauthorized noncitizens in these crucial industries.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Michael Myler	University of Mount Union	Agree	5
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Agree	9
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Uncertain	5	More likely than not Ohio's Gross State Product would decrease but I don't know how much. But mass deportations would be very, very expensive and that will have to be paid by someone so the net benefit will definitely be negative.
Kay Strong	Independent	Strongly Disagree	10
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	10
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Uncertain	6
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Uncertain	6
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Agree	6	This likely depends on how one defines "significantly". The loss of labor would reduce Ohio's Gross State Product in those areas with significant immigrant labor and state businesses would see lower sales if the state population were reduced due to mass deportation.
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Strongly Agree	10	Not only will it be reduced by immigrants production but because of their missing demand. Immigrants do not come and work in a vacuum. They spend the money they make creating additional demand for goods and service. They often have a high marginal propensity to consume from each dollar they earn.