Ohio’s energy economy is changing. To understand how it will change as we approach midcentury, we need to understand how much energy Ohioans will be consuming at that point. To do this, Scioto Analysis has created a simple projection for energy usage in Ohio by midcentury.
According to the Energy Information Administration, energy use in the state of Ohio has fallen in the last 20 years. In 1999 the total energy consumption for the state was 4.2 trillion British Thermal Units. Two decades later, that number has dropped to 3.6 trillion Btus.
How much energy a state consumes is impacted by the population and the state's economic health, the latter of which is often measured by gross domestic product. A state with more people will consume more energy than a state with less people assuming per-capita energy consumption is the same. Similarly, a state with more economic activity will consume more energy than a state with less economic activity since energy use is necessary for manufacturing, distribution, and retail operations.
We created a model to project energy usage based on the past twenty years’ data of population and economic activity, regressing energy usage on year, population, and gross domestic product. Using this model, we project that by the year 2050, Ohio will consume about 2.6 trillion British Thermal Units of energy.
This methodology assumes current energy, population, and GDP trends would continue the way they are. Unexpected events will certainly change these trends. That was demonstrated in the graph below where you can see that 2008 when the recession had dramatic negative effects on energy use. Similarly, there are unexpected events that could impact population growth such as shifts in migration, mortality, or fertility trends.
This decrease in energy use suggests Ohio that is moving to a more energy efficient economy. Public policy decisions over the next thirty years may impact these trends one way or another.