In a survey published by Scioto Analysis this morning, 21 of 23 Ohio economists agreed a state child tax credit would substantially reduce child poverty.
Economists who agreed with the statement said that the magnitude of the reduction in child poverty would depend on the design of the program and whether it was supplemented with other programs such as a federal credit. One noted the evidence of the impacts of a federal credit. Of the two who disagreed with the statement, one said the amount of state child tax credits currently in place would not be enough to lift many children out of poverty.
Of the respondents, 19 of 23 economists agreed the costs of a state child tax credit would be offset over the long term by the benefits of improving outcomes for children. Those who agreed pointed to past research on investment in children, though one economists pointed out that children leaving the state as adults may offset this effect at the state level. One economist uncertain of the impact said that targeting to low-income children would be key to recouping public costs of the program.
Among respondents, 16 of 23 economists disagreed with the claim that parental labor supply would fall significantly due to a child tax credit. Among those who disagreed, some noted that there may be impacts on the labor supply, though that those impacts would be small. One economist who was uncertain noted the importance of the structure of the credit to its impact. One who agreed said the impact would be largest for low-income parents.
The Ohio Economic Experts Panel is a panel of over 40 Ohio Economists from over 30 Ohio higher educational institutions conducted by Scioto Analysis. The goal of the Ohio Economic Experts Panel is to promote better policy outcomes by providing policymakers, policy influencers, and the public with the informed opinions of Ohio’s leading economists.