Question A: A $15 minimum wage for Ohio would significantly increase unemployment.
Question B: A $15 minimum wage for Ohio would significantly improve the welfare of low-income people in Ohio.
Question A: A $15 minimum wage for Ohio would significantly increase unemployment.
| Economist | Institution | Opinion | Confidence | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Andreas | Bluffton University | Uncertain | 6 | I think you mean "reduce employment". That is actually the problem because unemployment could be caused by more people entering the job market which is generally a good thing for economic efficiency if there are still the same number of jobs. Past research shows that most minimum wage increases have about zero effect on employment. Eventually if the minimum were raised high enough it would cause problems, but even in my rural county, nearly everyone already pays at least $15/hr, so this benchmark is already close to the current equilibrium. |
| David Brasington | University of Cincinnati | Disagree | 8 | not that many workers affected |
| Ron Cheung | Oberlin College | Uncertain | 6 | |
| Kevin Egan | University of Toledo | Disagree | 8 | There is lots of evidence now from prior minimum wage increases that the impact on employment is small. |
| Will Georgic | Ohio Wesleyan University | Strongly Disagree | 7 | In his 2019 report for the United Kingdom, labor economist Arin Dube found that the minimum wage can reach somewhere between 60% and 66.6% of the median hourly wage for a territory without causing significant negative effects on employment. Coincidentally, the median hourly wage in the state of Ohio in 2023 was $22.45, as reported by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. A $15 minimum wage would be 66.8% of this median wage, which has risen over the past year. By the time a $15 minimum wage could be implemented in Ohio, it would be in the suggested range relative to the state's median wage, and thus have a greater chance at improving the welfare of low-income people without causing a significant increase in unemployment. |
| Bob Gitter | Ohio Wesleyan University | Disagree | 8 | Only about one in five Ohio workers make less than $15/hour. Most would still be retained. |
| Faria Huq | Lake Erie College | Uncertain | 7 | While unemployment is likely in this scenario, whether it would be a significant increase or not would depend on the labor market demand and supply conditions at the time of implementation. |
| Michael Jones | University of Cincinnati | Agree | 7 | |
| Charles Kroncke | Mount Saint Joseph University | Agree | 9 | |
| Bill LaFayette | Regionomics | Uncertain | 8 | There is a complex interplay among wages, productivity, hours, and the somewhat higher consumer demand that higher wages would create. The net impact is uncertain. |
| Trevon Logan | Ohio State University | Strongly Disagree | 9 | |
| Joe Nowakowski | Muskingum University | Strongly Disagree | 7 | It is not clear what percentage of Ohio's workers make less than $15 an hour now. Some of these people may see some job loss, but the market has pushed wages up for most Ohioans. |
| Curtis Reynolds | Kent State University | Agree | 5 | This would be almost 50% higher than the current minimum wage of $10.45. While I would love to see people being paid a higher wage, this almost certainly cause unemployment, at least in the long run. Perhaps that could be offset by phasing it in slowly over time but this is a very large increase. Smaller increases likely would have small unemployment effects and would be justified as research has shown that labor markets are not very competitive (meaning that wages are held below what they would be in a competitive market). |
| Kay Strong | Independent | Disagree | 7 | |
| Iryna Topolyan | University of Cincinnati | Uncertain | 8 | |
| Ejindu Ume | Miami University | Strongly Disagree | 8 | |
| Kathryn Wilson | Kent State University | Uncertain | 5 | I do believe an increase in the minimum wage that is that large would be big enough to influence unemployment, but I don't know that it would result in a significant increase. |
| Rachel Wilson | Wittenberg University | Disagree | 8 | When you pay low income people more they spend about 100% regionally thus creating increased demand for goods and services and subsequently employment. |
Question B: A $15 minimum wage for Ohio would significantly improve the welfare of low-income people in Ohio.
| Economist | Institution | Opinion | Confidence | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Andreas | Bluffton University | Agree | 4 | Since it is already close to the equilibrium, I doubt it would have much effect on low-income households, but we'd need to know what percent of low-income people are currently paid below $15hr and I don't have the data. |
| David Brasington | University of Cincinnati | Uncertain | 5 | would help in short run, but hurt in long run as industry has more incentive to adopt labor-saving technology |
| Ron Cheung | Oberlin College | Agree | 6 | |
| Kevin Egan | University of Toledo | Agree | 8 | |
| Will Georgic | Ohio Wesleyan University | Agree | 7 | The Ohio Department of Job and Family Services data indicates that 10% of Ohio's workers earned less than $13.23 per hour in 2023. For full-time employees at this wage, a $15 minimum wage would mean at least $3,500 more in annual compensation. While this would be a significant improvement for low-income people, the impact will be less pronounced in 2025 if the wages at the 10th percentile have increased since 2023. |
| Bob Gitter | Ohio Wesleyan University | Disagree | 8 | Depends on what you mean by significant but some of the workers earning under $15/hr are second or third earners in the household. Few workers earning this wage are in poverty families. |
| Faria Huq | Lake Erie College | Agree | 7 | Some groups might be hurt due to unemployment, but those that are employed are likely to see an improvement in well being. Increased productivity would also benefit employers. |
| Michael Jones | University of Cincinnati | Disagree | 8 | |
| Charles Kroncke | Mount Saint Joseph University | Strongly Disagree | 10 | |
| Bill LaFayette | Regionomics | Uncertain | 4 | Fewer than one in five jobs in Central Ohio paid less than $15 per hour last year. The income of some of these workers and those earning slightly more would increase. The net impact is uncertain and may be less than might be supposed. |
| Trevon Logan | Ohio State University | Agree | 8 | |
| Joe Nowakowski | Muskingum University | Disagree | 5 | In the short run there may be some improvement, but over time low-skilled workers face the danger of being replaced by technology. |
| Curtis Reynolds | Kent State University | Disagree | 5 | My response is based entirely on my unemployment prediction above. Higher wage jobs would significantly increase welfare for those who have a job, but less people may have a job. Most research suggests that a better way to decrease poverty is through the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) which does not raise costs to firms and therefore does not increase unemployment. Research indicates that program not only decreases poverty but also has positive effects in other realms (e.g. K-12 school performance) such that each dollar spent actually returns more than a dollar of social value. |
| Kay Strong | Independent | Strongly Agree | 9 | |
| Iryna Topolyan | University of Cincinnati | Agree | 10 | |
| Ejindu Ume | Miami University | Strongly Agree | 8 | |
| Kathryn Wilson | Kent State University | Uncertain | 5 | It would improve the welfare of those who keep their minimum-wage job. However, if it does reduce overall employment, those gains may be offset some by the loss in welfare for those who lose their job. I also am concerned about what would happen to the minimum wage over time -- it currently is indexed to inflation which I think is an excellent policy. It is not clear if the $15 minimum wage would similarly be indexed to inflation, and if not then any potential gains would dissipate over time due to inflation. |
| Rachel Wilson | Wittenberg University | Agree | 9 |